Are We Winning in Afghanistan? Thoughts on General Allen's Interview

 

Are We Winning In Afghanistan (Link)

These incidents need to be analyzed further as Gen. Allen stated. In the

wake of the Arab Spring, the idea of organic revolts springing up across the

land is romantic, but in reality I'd have to agree with David Young that

they are most likely disconnected attempts at solving security at the

Tribal/village level. Villages and tribes that make this attempt to solve

problems on their own are not being satiated by the Afghan Government, and

that presents a huge rift (one that is pretty widely identified already)

with the GIRoA's inability to reach out to lower levels to solve problems

(security, education, resources, etc).

These revolts "against" the Taliban are not particularly revolts against the

Taliban, but the attempt to find a solution that works best for that

village. How the ANSF is categorizing these (threat, political actions,

tribal business, or an extension of their security plan) will be important

for us to have situational awareness on. Afghanistan is re-growing from
the root level, and connecting GIRoA and the villages would be an ideal
solution, but it's already (and has been for a while) shaping up to be local politics
vs big government. It is imperative that as the politicking is worked out, that ISAF

make an effort to broaden the perspective of our ANSF partners so that they

keep 2nd, 3rd, 4th orders of effect prior to making rash decisions. For

example, is a local militia member who assumes security of a village in

Ziruk a threat to ANSF or an ally, and have the military leadership had a

dialogue weighing cost/benefit prior to attempting to intervene or not

intervene.

With the death of Badruddin Haqqani, the current wave of protests sweeping

throughout the world, more talk of "leaving Afghanistan", and increasing hostility
towards Pakistan in the global diplomatic sphere, it is a pretty certain assumption

that next year's fighting season will be challenging and rigorous. Advising

is going to be a challenge as the ANSF are tested while still getting their

systems functional. With the integration of their fires enablers, a possibly

more robust logistical network, and an increase in Soldier levels, they have

some means to maintain momentum, but it will be a continual challenge

troubleshoot issues in their processes.